Futures Studies

This post was originally published on 8th March 2016 in Brain-Work: The Centre for Evidence Based Library and Information Practice (C-EBLIP) blog here: http://words.usask.ca/ceblipblog/ 

"In March 2015, I started as a student in the Doctorate of Professional Studies (DPST) program. I wanted to find out why librarians are ‘doing’ information practice so far behind what is relevant in the current information environment. Obviously, we are all at different places and have different strengths in regards to our professional practice, but generally, as a group, librarians are, well, behind the information use of our clientele. Just admit it.

Scholarly communication has been transformed. The world in which information professionals operate has been disrupted, and embracing these changes allows for a much broader scope for the roles we play. I wanted, really, to shake things up. After reading tonnes of the literature, debating with myself, and arguing with the DPST Program Director about how I was going to address the problem, I was introduced to causal layered analysis (CLA).

CLA is a ‘futures studies’ methodology which was introduced by Sohail Inayatullah in 1998. The original paper can be found here. Professor Inayatullah is a practitioner of futures studies, the interdisciplinary study of postulating possible, probable, and preferable futures. But how can this possibly be scientific? I mean, how can it be possible to collect evidence from a future that hasn’t happened yet? It is a paradox which has not been ignored by practitioners.

Futures studies is a growing transdisciplinary field which has embraced such fields as systems thinking, education, hermeneutics, macrohistory, sociology, management, ecology, literature, ethics, philosophy, planning and others. It is an integrated field ‘with many lines of inquiry weaved together’ to create a complex whole (Ramos 2002).
The discipline uses a systematic and pattern-based approach to analysing the sources, patterns, and causes of change and stability in the past (history, economics, political science) and present (sociology, economics, political science, critical theory) in an attempt to develop foresight and determine the likelihood of future events and trends.

De Jouvenel (1965), an early futures theorist, likened forecasting or ‘the art of conjecture’ to the science of the meteorologist. Weather forecasts can be prepared reasonably accurately for each of the next few days. A forecast for more than a month in advance can be based on patterns, such as normal temperatures and precipitation, and other factors which may affect these in relation to the average. There is no way for a meteorologist to, with any certainty, say what the minimum and maximum temperature and precipitation levels on a particular day one month in the future will be. The meteorologist may, however, be able to say that it is likely that we will have above average rainfall, or that temperatures will be below average. A futures study considers patterns of power and privilege, social institutions, religion, and history, to postulate possible future states that may recur.

The causal layered analysis method, specifically, is not used to predict the future, but rather to create ‘transformative spaces for the creation of alternative futures’ (Inayatullah 1998). It is an action research method for increasing the probability of a preferred future by examining the problems, systems, worldviews and myths of the present. It is about human agency – using what we know about the past, to act in the present, in order to create/shape the future we would like to see.

Just imagine librarians in your own workplace, critically examining their own current problems, existing systems, worldviews, and subconscious myths and mythologies, to transform their practice. Perhaps you are starting to see why I decided to use the causal layered analysis method in my research.

I’m currently preparing for Confirmation of Candidature. Professor Inayatullah has agreed to be one of my supervisors. I think that makes me a *ahem* futures theorist.

If you are interested in finding out more I recommend this article by Professor Inayatullah on Library Futures published in The Futurist magazine."

References:

Inayatullah, S 1998, ‘Causal layered analysis: Poststructuralism as method’, Futures, vol. 30, no. 8, pp. 815–829.

De Jouvenel, B 1965, The Art of Conjecture, Trans. by Nikita Lary. Weidenfeld and Nicholson, London.

Ramos, JM 2002, ‘Action Research as Foresight Methodology’, Journal of Futures Studies, vol. 7, no.1, pp. 1-24.

Library Philosophy

A brief and muddled comment on Charles B. Osburn's The Social Transcript (2009)

Investigating and summarising the literature on the 'functions' of the Library seems either too easy or impossible. First of all, there is very little literature of any substance, and secondly, I can't agree with some of it. What does that mean for me as a librarian, apparently dedicating myself to a profession located in an institution whose functions, as espoused by the literature, i would like to challenge?

Osburn finds some of the core 'functions' of the library found in the literature...

Library as:

an agent of communication

a force for cohesion

useful to the individual (flexibility and relevance)

serving society (storage and preservation of knowledge)

Benge (1970) pointed out the "unresolved and possibly inherent contradictions" within the foundations of librarianship. I can see the obvious tensions between the relevance and usefulness, and the storage and preservation, of knowledge. My concern is that the storage and preservation aspects are currently limiting the library's ability to remain flexible and relevant to the individual. Not in all actual library services, but in a deeper, more subconscious way (in the minds of librarians).

Also, the one thing I feel libraries dont do very well is communicate. It comes back in our surveys, and our conversations with clients: "I didn't know you did that" and "Why doesn't the library advertise this?"  The biggest gap in our client satisfaction survey is almost always to do with communication with clients. 

Giant fail.

Osburn identifies a set of themes as they relate to 'sense of place' of the library. These themes are: Ideas, Memory, Values, Imagination & creativity, and Intellectual comfort. That speaks to me as the library was always a 'safe space' for me, and these words feel 'safe'.

The confusion is that the library "is at once a producer, a medium, and a product of cultural evolution" (Osburn 2009). Perhaps we are forgetting that we are 'producers'. 

After reading the book, I found it's conclusion to be an anticlimax. Over 300 pages long, rigourous, academic, and 'dense' reading, it eventually sums up library philosophy in two words: "people" and "ideas". I would add a word: "learning". 

People, learning, and ideas. 

I can be a librarian in that library.

Endings and beginnings

The past year has been interesting, to say the least. We have prepared for a major organisational restructure, I have started a new job, and my son became very ill during the second part of the year, requiring hospitalisation and tube feeding.

Next year is still full of hope. I am hopeful about what the restructure will bring, and the possibilities for improvement in my organisation. I am hopeful that my children will continue to grow and learn without any major impediment. I am hopeful that my research will get underway and that through that process create lasting change.

I have been disappointed over the past year with my lack of writing and journalling my professional experiences. That is why, in 2016, I am committing to write something every day of the year. 

Things are starting to get complicated before I even start, though…

Do I use ‘ye olde’ pen and paper, or a digital journal? If I use a digital journal, what application do I use? Can I use a template of standard questions to structure my daily entries and make my thinking easier? What would those questions be? Where would I keep them written down? Can I get an application to prompt me with my questions on a daily basis? Should I blog my daily musings? If I blog my journal will this undermine my research ethics?

So, because I am a nerd, and am more likely to have my tablet with me that a paper notebook, I am going to try and journal ‘digitally’. After some extensive web searching, I am going to trial the ‘Day One’ app for iOS at AUD7.99. I can set it to notify me as a reminder to write, although I cannot have each entry pre-filled with some prompt questions, but I will investigate this further. I might write the questions in my first journal entry, so that they can be accessed at a later date if needed. The app allows me to export as a text file or pdf, as well as publish individual articles to the web. This allows me to select which entries I share and which entries remain my private thoughts, meaning I am able to avoid research ethics dilemmas. 

First, the process I went through to make the decisions above was so logical and generally evidence-based I have surprised myself! I was initially worried about spending so much money on an app, then I realised that I would definitely be spending more on a notebook and pens if I went the ‘paper way’. Then I also remembered that my workplace social club had given me an itunes voucher for Christmas. Bonus! - I think I am beginning to see improvements in my decision making process and my practice. 

It is almost as if I am ready. That means I will have to commit and actually do the writing, but I am not feeling overwhelmed. I feel hopeful, in control, and excited by the possibilities of the year ahead (hopefully that doesn’t mean in a couple of days I am going to come down and everything will seem terrible).

Completely off topic: I bought my kids a cheap above ground swimming pool for Christmas, so hopefully we will have some outdoor fun over the summer rather than our usual minecraft LAN  parallel play. 

Atychiphobia

My supervisor asked me, "What are you so afraid of?" Well, I worked it out.

Atychiphobia

I have recently been successful in gaining a five month secondment as a, well, the Research Librarian. The success of the future of Research support at the Library rests on my shoulders for the next five months. I'm super excited!
... and also worried. I know the stuff, and I can do the stuff, but there is always the fact that I am, well, me.

Why am I so worried? Well, I worked it out. I consider the possibility of failure so terrifying, that over a long period of time I have subconsciously undermined my own efforts so that I no longer had to try. I have settled for mediocrity to avoid the risks associated with distinguishing myself.

The fear is disproportionate, and irrational, and this Doctorate is part my attempt to realise my potential.

No more excuses. I am going to smash it. 

The nature of research...

What do we mean by research?

In my case, it is an attempt to understand, explore, and perhaps explain, a situation, problem, event, or phenomena. I think I want to understand something more clearly so that I can create change, or at the very least, make more futures possible.

The more I read, the more I realise that research means something different to everyone. Some people are trying to find truth, some are seeking knowledge, some are trying to find solutions to very real problems. 

It seems obvious, but the only thing all research has in common is that it asks a question.

What? by Véronique Debord-Lazaro, CC-BY-SA 2.0

What does research mean to you? Let me now in the comments section below.

Uncertain self

Image 'Facing Uncertainty' by Sara Biljana, CC-BY 2.0

I submitted a Learning Program for my own learning to my temporary supervisor. I swore a bit at it and said to myself:

"That will just have to do! I can still fix it up. It is not like this is my CoC (that is what I am calling Confirmation of Candidature). I just have to get something in so that I can get feedback."

Along with the attached file I wrote: 

"I am not entirely confident that this is complete. If I need to do something more, please let me know "

Dr * wrote:

"Excellent, excellent work. Well done. I am very happy with this. Comments attached.

 The purpose of this semester was a) to mentally prepare ourselves for the doctoral study and b) set personal objectives (take ownership). You have achieved this with aces – well done."

My immediate thought was: 

"PHEW"

then...

"Does he think he has to be nice to me? ... Is this about making me feel better so that I don't give up?"

then...

"What is wrong with me? Why can't I accept that I have done something well?!"

Then the last two things went around and around like this until I told myself to forget about it and concentrate on the million of other things I was doing. 

I was SUPER efficient while I was avoiding thinking about this. I wrote some reports and documents I had been meaning to do, updated the ALIAQld blog, put together some slides for a webinar, started my section of the Social Media for T&L guidelines... I even did some reading on the philosophy of librarianship.

So, now I'm looking at this Learning Program and - oh dear.

One of the four areas where previous learning had not been adequate, (ie. areas for improvement) identified in my own self-assessment is:

"objective judgement “removing my ‘self’, or ego, from the situation in order to develop perspective”

BAHAHA HAHA HAHA! *snort*  That is all. 

Imposter!

Having recently spent a whole lot of time NOT writing on this blog, I have started to question why I think writing publicly is so challenging for me.

It comes down to a number of feelings/thoughts:

1. Writing 'out loud' will expose my complete and utter incompetence
2. People might find out what a fragile being I am (and then what?.. the world will explode?)
3. What could I possibly have to write that people might be interested in?

And what is with being so insecure to write professionally when I speak publicly, on camera, so often, without even thinking about what people think of me. What is interesting is that I have realised I am not the only person who thinks like this about blogging!

Recently (like, literally, this morning) @libsmatter wrote this blog post and something caught my eye: "The hard bit is really in finding who you want to be in the space." 

Yes. Yes it is.
How can I know who I want to be in this space when I am never sure who I am anyway? I mean, I'm a Librarian. At least, that's what the Grad. Dip. certificate and my job title makes me. I'm a mum, and a sister, and a carer, and a 'Tegan'. 

I am different to a lot of other librarians. For the most part, my life and the world I have lived in are remote to the worlds of people I have worked with. It would be QI to know how this affects me as a professional. 

FYI: Keeping a professional reflective learning journal (THIS blog) is going to be a major component of my Doctorate. I have no choice. I HAVE to write! 
Who is going to care? Well, it doesn't matter really, does it? The examiners will probably have to read it whether they really want to or not. My Dad will probably read it because he likes to know what I'm doing. If that is it, then that's OK. It's for me really, isn't it.

As the wise and wonderful Kate Davis says, "I'm not even sure I've actually said anything worth reading here, but I'm hitting publish anyway. And that’s what matters."

References:

Davis, K 2015, my name is kate, and i am [not] an impostor impostor
Greenhill, K 2015, Professional blogging and the imposter syndrome